Javen Allese's Journal|
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|Sunday, August 11th, 2013|
|Open Note to The Christian Science Monitor and Brad Knickerbocker
Shame on you.
When I read the headline "Amber Alerts: How successful have they been in saving abducted kids?" I expect some analysis and statistics. Something along the lines of "there were n (number) of Amber alerts in the year 2012 and m (number) of children were successfully found and returned to their parents/guardians." Or perhaps a summary/synopsis of a report like this http://www.amberalert.gov/pdfs/11_amber_report.pdf
. Or even looking at a particular facet of that report previously linked since it's a bit lengthy for a news article. I don't expect to get a brief summary of the two latest amber alerts along with a list of media outlets which are participating in the program. I believe in the Amber Alerts system and was hoping to read something concrete to back up that belief. Instead I was misled by your headline.
Again, shame on you.
|Saturday, July 20th, 2013|
|Learn to Count!!!
Chipotle Says You Can Order 65,000 Menu Combinations — We Put That Claim to the Test (article by Walter Hickey of the Business Insider)http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chipotle-says-order-65-000-223046670.html
(& I should learn to link, but eh)
This article has it wrong.
Their claim is that there are only 24,000 possibilities.
What did they miss?
Let's take a quick look at one section of the menu, say salsa. The article claims there are only five choices: corn(C), mild(M), medium(D), hot(H), and none(N). Here is the problem. Let's look a true list of your options. You choose to have or not each of the items separately. Corn, yes or no? Mild, yes or no? ...
Here is a list of true options (I admit it's weird to choose both medium and hot, but you CAN do so. My wife chooses MH for the record.):
Note that the first five items in the list are from the article. The article fails to include combinations of salsas. So how many salsa combinations are there? I count sixteen. How do we get that number? Well, there are four items and we have two choices for each option. Simplifying the rule from combinatorics, the total number of combinations is given by (number of choices per item - in our case 2) to the power of (number of total items in the list - in our case 4) or 2^4=16.
I also have to admit that it would be strange to ask for all the meats and they do not call out what the cost would be to have all of the meats, but the advertisement is for "flavor combinations." So let's look a bit further at the article. Based on the discussion above we need not even worry about what type of item is listed on the menu. We only need to worry how many items are on the menu. I count 16 from the list in the article (not including choice of item).
So how many are there? 2^16=65536 possibilities. Now this includes walking in, looking at the menu and saying, "Yuck, I don't think I want to eat here at all," and walking right back out. So there are 65535 ways you can fill your burrito, burrito bowl, salad or tacos (hard or soft).
|Friday, October 5th, 2012|
Take a look at this article and the quote below.
"Summer months may be the best time for job seekers to land a new job"http://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/national/summer-months-may-be-the-best-time-for-job-seekers-to-land-a-new-job
"Dick Lippert, a managing partner at Leathers Milligan and Associates Talent 'Management Solutions, says that 25 percent of all individuals hired during the year get hired in July, August and September.'"
First, I understand that the headline has the word "may" in it. However, the tone of the article itself implies "is" instead of "may" to me. And then they use statistics which I find very interesting in an annoying way.
Let's take a look - 25% of the people who are hired in a year happen to be hired in 3 months (25% of a year in terms of time). We don't really know anything about the other quarters of the year, but we can be certain that either 25% of the people hired are hired in each of the other three quarters or one of the other three quarters must have MORE than 25% of the hirees in it, otherwise we can't reach 100% over the year. In other words, summer is most definitely NOT the best time for job seekers to land a new job. It's either equal to the other quarters or is worse than at least one of the other quarters and maybe even worse than two of them. This is the kind of innumeracy that this country thrives on. Come on, it doesn't get any more basic than this!
So, let's look at that July-August statistic. 2 months of one year is 16.67% which rounds to 17% which happens to be the same as the percentage of people hired in those months.
What I do find amazing is that those percentages (time and number hired) are EQUAL. I'd expect at least some variation. I am curious as to where specifically Mr. Lippert got his data and over how many years the data covered because those statistics are unbelievable. And as already mentioned if they are taken a face value prove the headline wrong.
Lastly, why wouldn't you put an article up espousing that the upcoming quarter is the best time to be looking for work instead of the quarter past (even if the statistics are wrong). Let's give people something to look forward to instead of saying, "Hey guys, you missed the boat!"
|Monday, May 28th, 2012|
I know this is meant to be a patriotic day, but after some thinking I decided to transcribe the following from a balloon that our dogs alerted us to on the night of Mother's Day. It's still a memorial, just a bit different. These were written on two sheets of long Peanuts stationery with the quote "I don't know what you're talking about... I'm too young and innocent." Any misspellings and grammar errors are a result of transcription, the age of the writer and/or not my not knowing how to get a tilde.
Vita these are for you.
Hoy y sie mone te recuerdo y se que estas al ladu mia y de tus nietos Romel Jr., Hans, Jimmy Guer hoy estoy al ladu de Romel warda en el bueno me ho ayudado mucho con los ninos y me ama yo ya lo he perdonado mama gracias por aus consejos y tu amor porace huy siemone estoy ay ladu de no so trus Happy Mothers Day!!! te pido tu interasion ante nuestro padre & Jesus por las situaciaciene que estamos pasando en nuestra vi ca para que hoy siempre la felicidad prosperidad, fait, sabidonin este en mi familia y mi relacion con Romel warda gracias mama por tus con sojos y por sue siempre has sidu una excelence mama a si ej Amen
I miss you! I wish we can see each other. I know that we will meet again. And Happy Mother's Day! We all miss you. I thank you taking care of me when I was young. I miss you and love you.
I miss u I wish we can see u I love u so much! and Happe Mather's Day. I miss u
I really miss you I really hope you were here so we can celebrate mothers day to gether it would be so fun but I know soon we will be together and then we will celebrate mothers day together and I hope with my heart you will like this note I love you very much I hope I can see you soon love you!
|Sunday, July 24th, 2011|
Parmesan cheese everywhere!
|Friday, January 1st, 2010|
|Happy New Year
I don't post much. I mainly follow my friends' posts and lives on this contraption. I don't see this changing in the future. (Heck, I still owe a post about my grandmother from September 2008.) But I do occasionally crawl out and wave hello.
I hope everyone enjoyed the holidays and that this year will bring more benefits and joy than grief and sorrow.
My love to all of you.
|Friday, July 31st, 2009|
|Friday, October 24th, 2008|
|Saturday, October 18th, 2008|
Djinn and I saw our first live rattlesnake (a Western Diamondback - Crotalus atrox) today. Of course, we saw it on the "Plants of the Gateway" hike this morning. The experience was amazing!! Not only was the experience amazing, the snake was too. It is unusual to see a snake of this size that still has an intact rattle.
It kept coming back to the trail we were on (crossing the trail twice). Djinn got some photos of the 4-4.5 foot snake, but we haven't pulled them off the camera yet. If you ask nicely (and one or two of the shots came out) she may post one.
|Saturday, September 27th, 2008|
If I make you uncomfortable I certainly understand and have followed through on your request.
|Thursday, June 19th, 2008|
she's walking around with a flashlight and she knows how to use it!!
|Monday, June 2nd, 2008|
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
...and you're crazy.
The photo album of the wedding arrived today. You obviously put a lot of thought into photo choices and ordering. It shows and is wonderful!
|Wednesday, May 21st, 2008|
Today we lost a good man.
Uncle John died this morning while having surgery to install a new heart valve. He was a kind person, who gave my aunt a second life. He will be missed by the entire family.
Good-bye, John. Be at peace.
|Saturday, April 19th, 2008|
|Monday, March 17th, 2008|
|Saturday, November 24th, 2007|
|Thursday, November 22nd, 2007|
|It's just not right...
Having the turkey going with the front and back doors open. The temperature inside is 80 degrees F and outside is 74 degrees F.
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
|Saturday, September 29th, 2007|
We're coming back to Michigan to get the rest of our stuff out of and off the property. The travel arrangements are made. We will be flying in to Metro on October 18 (scheduled landing at 4:08pm) and flying out on October 22 (take-off at 5:17pm).
First, is anyone interested in dinner on Thursday? Friday?
Is anyone interested in helping to load/move stuff on Saturday? Sunday? (I know it's not likely, but Monday?)
My thoughts are that Friday will begin with picking up a rental truck and dealing with banks/credit unions. The rest of Friday (and possibly early Saturday) will be sorting through stuff and making decisions. The rest of the time will be moving stuff either out to the curb or off to a storage unit. I know that several friends have offered to put stuff up for us, but I honestly don't know how long the stuff would need to be in your possession and I don't know how many of you would be available to bring stuff to over this particular weekend.
With that in mind and knowing that Djinn will need to endorse this one, I would like to offer some items to friends if they are interested rather than storing them. For instance, would anyone be interested in one or two five drawer legal-size vertical file cabinets? I'm honestly not sure of everything that remains in the house/garage at this point.
Any other thoughts out there? I hope to visit with friends and family a bit, but because of the amount of stuff that has to happen at the house I don't know how much time will be available.
|Saturday, September 15th, 2007|
|We're being invaded again...
Last time they were coming up in the master bathroom. This time its a toss up as to whether they are coming from the exterior wall in the dining room or up under the toilet in the full bathroom. Djinn told me to go get ant traps this time since they seem to be so insistent about this. Traps are bought and in place. We'll see how long before they die off.
In the mean time I will continue to kill off those between the two likely entry points with vinegar. Sigh.
|Saturday, August 18th, 2007|
|Thank you all.
I am happy for all of the advice regarding the milk. I've been planning to dispose of it, but thought I'd see if anyone had any interesting ideas.